The euro fell against the dollar, however, after European Central Bank Governing Council member Ardo Hansson said he saw more room for the central bank to cut interest rates. The euro fell 0.5 percent to $1.3498, with analysts and traders also saying lower oil prices may exacerbate concern about disinflationary pressures in the euro zone. Last week the euro fell as low as $1.3398 after a media report suggested the ECB could opt for negative deposit rates. ECB Executive board member Benoit Coeure said in Tokyo that slowing price growth, or disinflation, would continue for now, but would not progress to deflation. Falling oil prices weighed on commodity-linked currencies, with the Canadian dollar last trading up 0.4 percent at C$1.0554. The Australian dollar was down 0.1 percent at $0.9154, having earlier hit a 2-1/2 month low of $0.9117 due to the threat of intervention by the Reserve Bank of Australia to stem the currency’s recent gains.
The safer prediction would be sometime in the first quarter of 2014. ECB Chief Downplays Negative Interest Rates This week, the EUR has fallen foul on a number of occasions to central bank antics surrounding the possible implementation of negative deposit rates. The 17-member single currency was able to finally pick itself up off the floor after European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi, publically stated in Berlin that the possibility of negative interest rates had not been discussed since the last ECB policy meeting. Also aiding a currency in distress is this mornings German data. Business sentiment in Europes most dominant country rebounded sharply this month.
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Forex Trading Forecast: Can USD Continue Surge, Yen and Gold Tumble?
A risk for the bearish view comes though from persistence in the US tapering debate, after the latest FOMC minutes showed a lack of consensus among members. The markets will thus stay extra vigilant ahead of pending US data, which could prove decisive in the Feds readiness, or otherwise, to announce a reduction of asset purchases in December. Morgan Stanley expects the greenback to remain supported inasmuch as the October FOMC minutes have tipped the balance to an earlier than hitherto anticipated taper. In addition, the Fed is widely expected to strengthen its forward guidance on interest rates over the long-run, which should support the USD.
Forex: Sell AUD/USD on rebounds – Morgan Stanley
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Forex – NZD/USD steady with focus still on Fed
NZD/USD hit 0.8230 during late Asian trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8201, adding 0.23%. The pair was likely to find support at 0.8124, the low of November 22 and a 10-week low and resistance at 0.8272, the high of November 21. The greenback remained supported after last week’s minutes of the Fed’s October meeting said the bank could start tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in the ‘coming months’ if the economy continues to improve as expected. The kiwi was higher against the Australian dollar with AUD/NZD retreating 0.54%, to hit 1.1138. The Aussie remained under pressure after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens last Thursday said the central bank was “open-minded” about intervention to weaken the currency.
Forex: GBP/USD Technical Analysis – Resistance Seen Above 1.62
By David Rodriguez , Quantitative Strategist ; Ilya Spivak , Currency Strategist ; Michael Boutros , Currency Strategist ; David Song , Currency Analyst and Christopher Vecchio , Currency Analyst 23 November 2013 00:01 GMT Talking Points – Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) finishes near multi-month highs on Yen and Aussie Dollar tumbles – Volatility might slow in the week ahead, but keep an eye on key event risk in Japan – Have a strong opinion on the Dollar? Voice it through FXCM currency baskets US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Likely to Continue Higher, but Against Which Currencies? The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) rallied for its third week of the past four and finished near multi-month highs. A holiday-shortened week suggests the Dollar price action may slow, but why might the Greenback see big moves in the days ahead?